Because North Korea is on many people's minds these days, I thought some of you might be interested in this interview of William Perry (now 88 years old), who was the Clinton administration's point man on North Korea in 1994. The LA Times asked him why Clinton did not hit North Korea when they were "about to move fuel rods from its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, to a reprocessing center — the first step in making a nuclear weapon.":

The Pentagon drew up plans to destroy the facility with cruise missiles and F-117 Stealth fighters. William J. Perry, who as Defense secretary had drawn up the plan, ultimately decided not to proceed. Although he believed the Pentagon could safely destroy the plant without spreading radiation, he also thought that North Korea would retaliate against South Korea, and that the hostilities could engulf the region in a cataclysmic war.

The Clinton administration instead struck a deal to provide North Korea with energy assistance in exchange for a nuclear freeze. That deal fell apart in 2002 amid evidence that North Korea was cheating.

So, the deal lasted from 1994 to 2002, 9 years. Not bad.

I have no doubt that in a war with North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea have quite superior forces and we would win. But let’s raise the question what North Korea’s objectives are. Because I believe this is not a crazy regime; it is an evil regime, it is a reckless regime, but it’s not crazy. They are oriented almost entirely around regime survival and therefore they are not going to undertake an unprovoked nuclear attack against South Korea anyway. That’s bluster. They are not suicidal. They recognize if they do that their leaders will be killed and their country devastated. They know there will be a nuclear response against them. But if we get into a conventional war and they start losing it, and they see the regime falling anyway, then they might take some last, desperate Armageddon approach. From all of my experience with them, and I worked with the North Korean problem now for several decades and I’ve met with North Korean leaders many times, I think this is a sobering and a worrisome forecast of what could happen.


LA Times: Are you opposed to military action in North Korea under any circumstance?


I am not opposed to military action forever. I think it is something we always ought to hold as an option. But I think it premature. I think we still have significant diplomatic steps, but it must be in conjunction with China. If you put the incentive and disincentive package together, and we add China to the mix, we have enough. We’ve never been able to get them to cooperate in the past, but now might be the time. First of all, I think North Korea is taking us seriously, fearing that we might conduct military action. Secondly, and more importantly even, China is now concerned. If we make the right proposal and they join forces with us, it will be a very powerful diplomatic approach. The opportunity is there; I hope we don’t muff it.