The Truth
- 2015-06-29
Everybody thought that Japan would overtake the US back in the 80s, where is Japan now?
Japan with 1/3 of the USA population, reached half the GDP and stalled.
China, with 4.5x the USA population, will reach 150% the GDP and stall.
With 150% the GDP, they will be able to field a military of the same size, yet lower GDP percentage.
This will be...a problem...for the other 82% of humanity.
) and the industrial apparel really starts moving to SEA.
Definitely. However, how many workers are there in all of SEA? 1/2 of China if you include every person in SEA? There are not enough human beings to replace all of the "high wage" Chinese factory workers.
China has 600 million underemployed and unemployed.
Haha
- 2015-06-26
No, just no.
China's entire economic model is still driven by cheap labor, manufacturing and exports. Everybody thought that Japan would overtake the US back in the 80s, where is Japan now? China has immensely more systemic problems than Japan ever had. Corruption, pollution, wealth gap, gender gap, running inflation, roller-coasting markets, debt crisis, inefficient SOCs, overcapacity, ethnic clashes, factions war within the leadership, ... should I keep going?
As for the Chinese economy, it might be beast now, but that's only possible thanks to complete disregard for the environment and because your average Zhou earns peanuts, let's see what happens when the government has to raise wages (because of popular anger) and the industrial apparel really starts moving to SEA. Despite the size of its economy, domestic consumption only accounts for a small fraction of China's GDP, chances are it won't take off for NongGuoRen hate their country and save up money to buy their ticket out of here.
Now things go berserk and the Shanghai index is headed straight back to the 7 years crash, that's what happens when finance illiterate ayis and taxi drivers who never graduated from middle school play with the markets. The trillions of RMB needed to fix that mess are locked tight hard into real estate assets.
Sit and watch, it's going to be interesting. Wo Aiiiiiii NongGuooooooooo!!!!!