Sometimes I hear this idea about 'economic refugees' (who may be very talented or not) but I don't really see anyone like this coming to China. I think they become 'economic refugees' after living in China and realizing they aren't saving enough money to exit China and return home properly.
Anyways, I do think ESL teachers will be leaving China more often than new ones arrive. It will take a few more cycles but I do expect to see far less. Mainly due to the new disrespect for foreign teachers and the arrogance of too many Chinese employers. (undeserved).

And as for 'economic refugees' I get the sense these would be just as likely to leave - although I don't really see this distinct group. Maybe the better teachers would stay since they might have the better jobs/locations/schools in China.

Vietnam, Cambodia, maybe these will be the new destinations for ESL teachers?

You may be right... Unfortunately, Vietnam's ESL industry seems to have just as much bullshit going on as in China, if not worse. When the shitty recruiters can no longer make money in China, they will probably go there. Mind you, we hear of far less bad reviews from Vietnamese places on here compared to Chinese places.

Shame, because it is arguably a nicer place to live.

For me it is the incredible part of China that I can never understand: How can less then one-million foreigners be so much trouble for this country? After we are thrown out, who are next to be blamed? To tell you the truth: Pollution, unsanitary food, an alien culture, and how Chinese do things from day to day will throw out more foreigners out of China than the Chinese government. My small town has 6 new teachers and all of them are leaving this year and next year. They don't want to stay here for a few years.
The Chinese will receive economic refugees in droves. BUt those ex-pats who can contribute more, are leaving.

Very true, I think that the next project that I will most likely sign up for, might be one of the very last chances for me to be involved in something where I am actually really contributing something and starting something new. A lot of expat types have completed their projects and returned home or moved on to the next big developing country.

There's several reasons for that, the Chinese have upped their game, overseas graduates are often choosing to return home and so on. There might be a few more opportunities in the West, if this 50 provinces plan comes to fruition, a few cities may get a new boost, but overall there will be less expats coming over.

The DOS bloke bragging about his job is one problem with ESL. Obviously it's not a career, you are spot on in that regard. I think any foreigner who comes to China in the hope of getting a promotion in ESL has serious problems. These people are pests, as they are the sort of people who want to achieve certain "sales targets" for training centers.
They are perpetuating a problem which should never have existed in the first place. I may be very critical of China, but if some honest official were to really crack down on training schools and corporate education I'd be the first to congratulate them.

I have a feeling that this could actually happen in the near future. However sadly, the true motivation won't be to kill off the bad schools, it will be a nationalist campaign to rid the country of lower class foreigners and make lives harder for ALL foreigners in China. If those shit schools can carry on without foreigners, they would.

If they want a sales job... There are plenty advertised in China, why don't they cut out the middleman?